Disaster resilience analysis of urban transportation networks to support decision-making on planning and expansion

D’Ayala, D., Safak, E., Byun, J-E., Mentese, E.
Tomorrow's Cities
Working paper
April 2022

HUB-Istanbul work package (WP) 2.6 aims to evaluate multi-hazard resilience analysis of urban transportation networks and suggest the potential approach for analysing the case study area, Fikirtepe, Istanbul, Turkey. Research outcomes will be conveyed by five deliverables. The first deliverable summarised the overall framework of analysis and required data for assessing physical vulnerability. Based on the framework, this second deliverable deals with the collection and handing of the data required to evaluate traffic functionality of roadways and system, while discussing characteristics and challenges in analysing transport systems, methods for quantifying system functionality, probabilistic analysis framework and selected analysis parameters in the present study. Based on the framework and datasets summarised in the first two deliverables, the third deliverable will develop a probabilistic model to incorporate multi-layered analysis and data, which will be demonstrated by pilot examples. The fourth deliverable will present a thorough analysis of real-world transportation networks in the case study area, including mapping, network analysis and network performance evaluation. The evaluation results should be used to support decisions through mathematically formulated decision tasks, which will be illustrated in the fifth deliverable.

This second deliverable summarises the risk assessment of urban transportation networks, including the characteristics of urban transportation networks, evaluation of system functionality and probabilistic inference to support decision-making. Based on the investigation, this deliverable proposes the analysis framework and parameters to be used in this project, with a focus on the study area, Fikirtepe, Istanbul, Turkey.