In this video, Thaísa Comelli, Postdoctoral Research Associate from the University College London (UCL) - Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction and Future Visioning co-lead explains how the first stage of the TCDSE works.
Future Visioning
The process begins with a careful selection of community members and institutional actors who represent power imbalances relevant for a discussion about risk. For example, this inclusive representation encompasses policy makers, government officials, as well as migrants and farmers. These stakeholders participate in a series of workshops where they discuss priorities, struggles and, most importantly, aspirations for the future. Discussions also delve into the governance context that contributes to better or worse outcomes in the face of hazards and on limitations in achieving these envisioned futures.
Future Visioning activities in Istanbul.
Left: Future Visioning Workshop, Kibera, Nairobi, December 2022. Turning Future Visions into Spatial Plans.
Top Right: Life trajectories – including ideas for the future – represented using the metaphor of a river in Kibera, Nairobi.
Bottom Right: Initial scoping of collective aspirations for the future captured through the ‘wheel of urban assets’ of Tomorrow’s Cities.
Stakeholder’s visions are captured using various methods from the arts and humanities, such as visual representations, a ‘wheel’ that views aspirations as urban assets and a vision statement that encapsulates the essence of the vision. Although there are some shared elements across groups, the specific details of the visions often differ, as they reflect the various priorities and viewpoints of the stakeholders involved in the process.
Visioning Statement with wheel showing prioritised urban assets.
Participants subsequently translate these visions into tangible spatial plans, co-producing maps with main desired land-uses, whilst also identifying crucial policies necessary to enhance the efficacy of their proposals against hazards.
By projecting their visions around thirty years into the future, every group ultimately creates a vision, which is a synthesis of what they would like to see come true in that time frame, from the perspective of someone in a position similar to theirs. This allows participants to think beyond personal constraints, fostering a collective and imaginative mindset. The resulting Visioning Scenarios portray distinct perspectives projected into the future, highlighting socio-spatial diversity without competing visions.
Future Visioning in Istanbul
Using Geographic Information Systems and the incorporation of social and infrastructural datasets that represent urban trends, these conceptual visions are translated into detailed plans that can be rigorously evaluated against future natural hazards using Computational Modelling techniques.
Prior to the modelling process, however, participants convene with Tomorrow's Cities for a second time to verify and scrutinise the interpretation of their designs. During this 'validation' workshop, groups also examine the typical trade-offs in planning that arise from their ambitions for the future - such as the clash between the desire for expanded or preserved environmental resources and the repercussions of projected population growth.
Future Visioning Workshop, Kibera, Nairobi, December 2022. Turning Future Visions into Spatial Plans
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