Urban Scenarios

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In this video, Dr. Emin Yahya Menteşe an Urban Planning, Exposure Modelling and Geographic Information Systems expert working at the Boğaziçi University - Kandilli Observatory, explores the link between Future Visioning and Urban Scenarios stage.


Urban Scenario Stage 

During the process of creating Urban Scenarios, data produced during the Future Visioning workshops - reflecting the stakeholders’ visions and aspirations – is analysed and processed considering the information that characterises the urban area of interest – natural and built environment, hazards, socio-economic and policy context – and ultimately transformed into digital scenarios that depict potential urban contexts of the future.

Visioning Scenario Development


This process culminates in the creation of Policy Development Guidelines, Land Use Plans and Future Exposure Datasets that will shape the future of the city while respecting the stakeholders’ visions and aspirations.  


Urban Scenarios are built combining three components:


Policy bundles

The policy development component involves the selection, adoption, or creation of a range of policies aligned with the aspirations identified in the Future Visioning process. These policies are chosen through expert evaluation and elicitation, and they can be either selected from existing policies or crafted from the ground up to align with the envisioned scenarios. The policies' scope is defined by two primary considerations: their forward-looking nature and their emphasis on disaster risk reduction.


For instance, if a community aspires for economic growth, policies related to infrastructure development, job creation, and business incentives may be suggested. On the other hand, if environmental sustainability is a priority, policies related to conservation, renewable energy, and pollution control may be proposed.

Despite the diverse aspirations, communities may also find areas of convergence and develop a unique policy approach. Through deliberative processes that foster dialogue and consensus-building, community members may identify shared values and goals that transcend their differences, resulting in the development of a policy option that reflects a collective vision for the community's future.




Nablus inhabitants defining policies. 

Land Use Planning

In the Land Use Planning stage, the spatial expectations gathered during Future Visioning are translated into digital land use plans depicting dominant land use type (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial) as disaggregated zones.

The community-driven plans generated in Future Visioning serve as the foundation for spatial decision-making, with the urban planning team incorporating elements like potential hazards, legal constraints, and spatial planning standards into these community-driven plans. Consequently, a land use plan is created that is community-based yet informed by expert input.

Visioning Scenarios

Alternative Urban Scenarios reflecting the stakeholders’ visions and aspirations and supported by policy bundles and urban plans.

Land Use Map

Land use map and building layout of Tomorrowville, representing today.

Future Exposure Modelling

Once the land use plans are created, a comprehensive future exposure dataset is generated based on future projections and assumptions pertaining to the urban setting. The future exposure dataset encompasses not only physical elements, like buildings and infrastructure, but also socio-demographic factors, representing both households and individuals residing in the urban area. Furthermore, income categories are assigned within this dataset to depict the social context accurately. The generation of the future exposure dataset involves a series of computational procedures developed within a GIS environment.

Land Use Map

Land use plan and a potential building layout of Tomorrowville (in 50 years).

Team Lead
Emin Yahya Menteşe

Emin Yahya Menteşe

Job title
Urban Scenarios Lead / ANOFA