Academic Publications

Despite concerted calls over the past 20 years to ensure that urban development is undertaken in  nmanner that reduces disaster risk, urban planning often remains myopically focused on the built environment, seeing building codes, and land-use planning, as the most effective mechanisms of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). While these are clearly crucial elements of planning for Tomorrow’s Cities, they are only a part of an effective strategy.

This article makes the fundamental assertion that DRR policies addressing urban spaces must strive to redress drivers of social vulnerability. This requires an understanding of the complex interactions of forms of marginalization within the local contexts, and how these have been shaped by the broader urban planning and DRR planning environment. A qualitative research method is employed in this study to assist the development of Tomorrow’s Cities Decision Support Environment (TCDSE) that facilitates co production for risk-informed decision-making on future pro-poor urban development in the context of natural hazards. The research study involved semistructured interviews to obtain an in-depth account of social vulnerability in Sancaktepe, Istanbul. The narratives of the people draw upon different socio-demographic, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities besides vulnerabilities due to urban renewal processes which underestimate pro-poor policies in ˙Istanbul. Drawing on the narratives of interviewees, we then highlight the added value of contextualized and (inter)subjective qualitative interpretations. In conclusion, we argue how disaster risk-informed decision-making processes can be more progressive to ensure and serve in reducing vulnerabilities through our qualitative understanding as a voice of the community. This study is completed in Istanbul, within the Tomorrow’s Cities Hub.

Recent major earthquake disasters have highlighted the effectiveness of financial soft policies (e.g., earthquake insurance) in transferring seismic risk away from those directly impacted and complementing ‘hard’ disaster risk mitigation measures (e.g., structural retrofit). However, the benefits of existing financial soft policies are often not guaranteed. This may be attributed to: (1) their low penetration rate (e.g., in the case of earthquake insurance); (2) the fact that they typically neglect the explicit needs of low-income sectors in (developed and developing) modern societies, who are often disproportionately impacted by natural-hazard driven disasters; and/or (3) their failure to consider the time-dependent nature of urban exposure. We contribute towards addressing these shortcomings by proposing a flexible framework for designing and assessing bespoke, people-centred, household-level, compulsory financial soft policies (including conventional earthquake insurance, disaster relief fund schemes, income-based tax relief schemes, or a combination of these) across cities under rapid urban expansion. The proposed framework leverages the Tomorrow’s Cities Decision Support Environment, which aims to facilitate pro-poor disaster-risk-informed urban planning and design in developing country contexts. The framework specifically enables decision makers to strategically design and then assess the pro-poorness of mandatory soft policies, using financial impact metrics that discriminate losses on the basis of income. We showcase the framework using the hypothetical expanding city, “Tomorrowville”, successfully identifying pro-poor seismic-risk-related financial soft policies for different instances in the lifetime of the urban system.

Rapid urban expansion in many parts of the world is leading to increased exposure to natural hazards, exacerbated by climate change. The use of physics-based models of natural hazards in risk-informed planning and decision-making frameworks may provide an improved understanding of site-specific hazard scenarios, allowing various decision makers to more accurately consider the consequences of their decisions on risks in future development. We present results of physics-based simulations of flood, earthquake, and debris flow scenarios in a virtual urban testbed. The effect of climate change, in terms of increasing rainfall intensity, is also incorporated into some of the considered hazard scenarios. We use our results to highlight the importance of using physics-based models applied to high-resolution urban plans to provide dynamic hazard information at the building level for different development options. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that including building elevations into digital elevation models is crucial for predicting the routing of hazardous flows through future urban landscapes. We show that simulations of multiple, independent hazards can assist with the identification of developing urban regions that are vulnerable to potential multi-hazard events. This information can direct further modelling to provide decision-makers with insights into potential multi-hazard events. Finally, we reflect on how information derived from physics-based hazard models can be effectively used in risk-sensitive planning and decision-making.

Handwashing with soap (HWWS) has been estimated to have the potential to prevent 35% of the 704,880 deaths per year caused by diarrhoeal infectious diseases (UN Millennium Project, 2018), its wider risk reduction influence subsequently accentuated in times of COVID-19. However, this depends on place specific risk communication that leads to behaviour change, particularly amongst children in economically poor neighbourhoods. A study centred on five schools in the informal settlement of Kawangware, Nairobi found that puppetry, shadow shows and school model making produced effective risk communication and engagement spaces. Increased HWWS occurred when children designed, owned, and were able to apply risk communication.

In this Special Issue introductory paper, we present the Tomorrow’s Cities Decision Support Environment (TCDSE). As the negative impacts of natural hazards continue to escalate around the world due to increasing populations, climate change, and rapid urbanisation (among other factors and processes), there is an urgent requirement to develop structured and operational approaches towards multi-hazard risk-informed decision making on urban planning and design. This is a particularly pressing issue for low-to-middle income countries, which are set to be impacted ever more disproportionately during future natural-hazard events if the “business as usual” urbandevelopment approach continues unabated. Urban poor residents of these countries will significantly suffer under risk-insensitive development trajectories. The proposed TCDSE addresses this crucial challenge. It facilitates a participatory, peoplecentred approach to risk-informed decision making, using state-of-the-art procedures for physics-based hazard and engineering impact modelling, integrating physical and social vulnerability in a unified framework, and expressing the consequences of future disasters across an array of stakeholder-weighted impact metrics that facilitate democratisation of the risk concept. The purpose of this introductory paper is to provide a detailed description of each component of the TCDSE, characterising related data inflows and outflows between modules. We conclude with a short operational end-to-end demonstration of the TCDSE, using the Tomorrowville virtual urban testbed. Individual components of the TCDSE are further dealt with in detail within subsequent papers of this Special Issue.

This study focuses on scoring, selecting, and developing physical fragility (i.e., the probability of reaching or exceeding a certain damage state given a specific hazard intensity) and/or vulnerability (i.e., the probability of impact – or consequence – given a specific hazard intensity) models for assets of interest, with particular emphasis on buildings. Given a set of multiple relevant hazards for a selected case-study region, the proposed procedure involves 1) mapping the relevant asset classes (i.e., construction types for a given occupancy) in the region to a set of existing
candidate fragility, vulnerability and/or damage-to-impact models, also accounting for specific modelling requirements (e.g., time dependency due to ageing/deterioration, multi-hazard interactions);
2) scoring the candidate models according to relevant criteria to select the most suitable models for a given application; or

3) using state-of-the-art numerical or empirical
methods to develop fragility/vulnerability models not already available. The approach is demonstrated for the buildings of the virtual urban testbed “Tomorrowville”, considering earthquakes, floods, and debris flows as case-study hazards.

The concept of disaster risk is cross-disciplinary by nature and reducing disaster risk has become of interest for various disciplines. Yet, moving from a collection of multiple disciplinary perspectives to integrated interdisciplinary disaster risk approaches remains a fundamental challenge. This paper reflects on the experience of a group of early-career researchers spanning physical scientists, engineers and social scientists from different organisations across the global North and global South who came together to lead the refinement, operationalisation and testing of a risk-informed decision support environment for Tomorrow’s Cities (TCDSE). Drawing on the notions of subjects and boundary objects, members of the group reflect on their individual and collective journey of transgressing disciplinary boundaries across three case studies between
June–December 2021: operationalisation process of the TCDSE; development of a virtual urban testbed as a demonstration case for the implementation of the TCDSE; and consolidation of
frequently asked questions about the TCDSE for communication purposes. The paper argues that

(1) the production of boundary objects in interdisciplinary research nurtures relations of reciprocal recognition and the emergence of interdisciplinary subjects;

(2) the intrinsic characteristics of boundary objects define the norms of engagement between disciplinary subjects and constrain the expression of interdisciplinary contradictions; and

(3) affects and operations of power explain the contingent settlement of interdisciplinary disagreements and the emergence of new knowledge.
Activating the interdisciplinary capacities of early-career researchers across disciplines and geographies is a fundamental step towards transforming siloed research practices to reduce
disaster risk.

The systemic nature of risk is increasingly acknowledged within scholarship, policy and practice relating to disaster management. However, a number of conceptual and methodological challenges arise in advancing empirical inquiry in this regard. These challenges relate to how the boundaries of the system are determined both spatially and temporally, how expertise from across disciplines is integrated to allow for consideration of institutional and broad socio-economic drivers of risk in addition to physical drivers, and, crucially, how causality operates within system complexity. The potential of forensic investigations of disasters that typically deploy in-depth case studies to overcome these obstacles is evaluated on the basis of causal mapping with experts from a range of disciplinary backgrounds in Istanbul, Kathmandu, Nairobi and Quito. It is found that such investigations can serve to interrogate the fundamental value of any given system and its spatial and temporal bounds, generate collective mental models of the system from which risk emerges, and drive reflection on its root causes. However, it is critical that forensic investigation approaches carefully consider participant selection and facilitation in order to effectively operationalize the systemic risk concept in complementarity with other approaches.

Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning (RSLUP), a process that has implications for Disaster
Risk Reduction (DRR) as well as Urban Planning and Development, requires the participation of
the public and wider stakeholders. Public participation has been conceptualized in Nepal’s disaster
governance after the country transitioned into a federal democracy. It has undergone decentralization
as part of the federal reform process, including its undertakings towards DRR. However, it remains
unclear what this redistribution of authority means for public participation in relation to RSLUP. It
is important to ask whether the current institutional set up and policy instruments are conducive
for public participation. Therefore, this article examines how participation is construed within
relevant federal and local policies in Nepal. The article presents a thematic analysis of leading policy
instruments. The research reveals that participation emerges as a constitutional principle but the
concept of participation itself is characterised by definitional ambiguity. Although most policies
encourage the creation of spaces for public participation, this research reveals that these spaces are
limited in implementation and impact. Lack of clear guidelines on how to design and implement
public participation can hinder effective practice. Non-binding language within policy documents
makes it difficult to understand the intended outcome of participation. This paper illustrates the
extent to which participation has become a malleable construct that can have repercussions for ways
in which RSLUP is enacted and enforced, in both Nepal and other countries who share similar
socio-political context.

This working paper analyses and presents preliminary conclusions of TC’s researchers study of Khokana, Nepal, a traditional and small Newari village about 8 kilometers south of Kathmandu. Its objective was to better understand the cultural, social, and political rootedness of vulnerability that differs among individuals and different social groups. The analysis highlights the need for broadening the understanding of vulnerability in policy and practise through an intersectional lens not only in Khokana but in all disaster risk reduction initiatives. Researchers also present policy recommendations towards introducing an intersectional analysis of vulnerabilities when considering the reduction and management of disaster risk policies and project interventions.

Study region: This study focuses on urban flood modelling in developing cities with a special focus on informal settlements giving a specific case study of Mukuru slums in Nairobi city of Kenya. Informal settlements refer to unplanned settlements and areas where the housing doesn’t comply with the current housing codes and regulations and is thus characterized by a lack of legal settlement and housing plan approvals resulting in poor physical infrastructures and social services. Urban flood risks have been given less attention compared to rural riverine flooding in developing cities yet they cause more havoc. Using the appropriate set of models, flood modelling in urban settings is critical in integrated flood risk management.

Study focus: This study uses a desk review format to promote urban flood modelling knowledge and practice in integrated flood risk management in developing cities. In this regard, the study presents the review of various flood models highlighting their strengths and weaknesses and the significant role of model calibrations in addressing uncertainties while capturing the local scenarios. The paper further presents the role of model stacking where different models are used to understand the same hazard evolution at various scales.

New hydrological insights for the region: As developing cities grow, so do the flood risks, especially in the informal settlement. This study reveals the importance of comprehensively understanding the flood dynamics at various scales. The study points out the important role of model stacking and calibrations which allows the understanding of flood risks at various city scales for an integrated city flood risk management.

Quito, Ecuador, is a city at risk of many hazards including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides, compounded by the widespread presence of problematic volcanic soils known as Cangahua. This paper presents the preliminary results of data analyses undertaken on a new geotechnical database for Quito, compiled from a variety of sources. It is envisaged that this database will be utilised primarily for improving our understanding of landslide hazard drivers in communities in and around the city. The preliminary statistical analyses include probability density functions and regression models for soil parameters. A difference in geotechnical variability between the north and the south of the city was observed. The study also presents data from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mapping of an informally constructed hillside community in Quito, identifying house-scale slope features (e.g. cut slopes and house loading) that may affect local landslide hazard processes. Together, the statistical analyses of these datasets will provide the inputs for physics-based stochastic slope stability modelling. Recommendations for future data collection are given to support the development of a higher resolution Quito database and facilitate the improvement of community-scale slope stability assessments.

Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, and societies become more urbanised and interconnected. This need is recognised by the 2015–2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises the importance of preparing for the disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies that aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While the vast majority of natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced by historical context, some authors have sought to provide decision makers with risk-quantification approaches that can be used to cultivate a sustainable future. This Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work that has modelled and quantified the individual components that comprise tomorrow’s risk, i.e., future natural hazards affected by climate change, future exposure (e.g., in terms of population, land use, and the built environment), and the evolving physical vulnerabilities of the world’s infrastructure.

Being one of the top ten fastest urbanizing countries in the world with almost 60% urban areas, Nepal and mostly Kathmandu valley (KV), is undergoing rapid urban transition of spatial, demographic and economic changes, especially after the restoration of democracy in 1990 and subsequent political turmoil and changes. As a capital city with opportunities like access to education, jobs, health facilities and others, KV has been constantly pulling people from different parts of the country that led to densification of the city cores and uncontrolled urban sprawl, leading to unplanned growth of the built-up areas in the peri-urban landscape. This working paper, taking a case from a southern settlement of KV called Khokana, analyses the current trend of urbanization in KV with a reference of land use in general, and examines the responses from the local Newar communities as part of the tension and contradictions brought by the urbanization process and development interventions there in. Based on ethnographic fieldwork and review of literature, this study found that there is increasing demand of land creating speculative rise in land prices espoused by the infrastructure development projects being implemented by the federal government. Ultimately, the traditional place and culture are threatened so is the alienation of local people from their land, impacting their livelihood. Also, these development projects do not have resilient plans for their negative impacts in case of natural hazards, risking the achievement of resilient development in tomorrow’s cities.

HUB-Istanbul work package (WP) 2.6 aims to develop tools to analyse the multi-hazard resilience of urban transportation network in complex and evolving metropolitan environment, and propose a demonstrative application to a case study area: Fikirtepe in Istanbul, Turkey. Research outcomes will be conveyed by five deliverables. This document is the first deliverable, summarising the overall framework of analysis and required data for assessing physical vulnerability. Based on the framework, the second deliverable will deal specifically with another type of data required to evaluate traffic functionality of roadways and network performance. Based on the framework and datasets identified in the first two deliverables, the third deliverable will develop a probabilistic model to incorporate multi-layered analysis and data, which will be demonstrated by pilot examples. The fourth deliverable will present a thorough analysis of real-world transportation networks in the case study area, including mapping, network analysis and network performance evaluation. The evaluation results should be used to support decisions through mathematically formulated decision tasks, which will be illustrated in the fifth deliverable.

This first deliverable summarises and proposes the research objectives, the framework of multi-hazard disaster resilience analysis of urban transportation networks and data requirement for assessing physical vulnerability, which are accompanied with thorough literature review. Based on the development, major hazard threats and distributions of bridges are identified for the case study area, Fikirtepe in Istanbul, Turkey.

HUB-Istanbul work package (WP) 2.6 aims to evaluate multi-hazard resilience analysis of urban transportation networks and suggest the potential approach for analysing the case study area, Fikirtepe, Istanbul, Turkey. Research outcomes will be conveyed by five deliverables. The first deliverable summarised the overall framework of analysis and required data for assessing physical vulnerability. Based on the framework, this second deliverable deals with the collection and handing of the data required to evaluate traffic functionality of roadways and system, while discussing characteristics and challenges in analysing transport systems, methods for quantifying system functionality, probabilistic analysis framework and selected analysis parameters in the present study. Based on the framework and datasets summarised in the first two deliverables, the third deliverable will develop a probabilistic model to incorporate multi-layered analysis and data, which will be demonstrated by pilot examples. The fourth deliverable will present a thorough analysis of real-world transportation networks in the case study area, including mapping, network analysis and network performance evaluation. The evaluation results should be used to support decisions through mathematically formulated decision tasks, which will be illustrated in the fifth deliverable.

This second deliverable summarises the risk assessment of urban transportation networks, including the characteristics of urban transportation networks, evaluation of system functionality and probabilistic inference to support decision-making. Based on the investigation, this deliverable proposes the analysis framework and parameters to be used in this project, with a focus on the study area, Fikirtepe, Istanbul, Turkey.