Academic Publications

In our rapidly urbanizing world, many hazard-prone regions face significant challenges regarding risk-informed urban development. This study addresses this issue by investigating evolving spatial interactions between natural hazards, ever-increasing urban areas, and social vulnerability in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The methodology considers: (1) the characterization of flood hazard and liquefaction susceptibility using pre-existing global models; (2) the simulation of future urban built-up areas using the cellular-automata SLEUTH model; and (3) the assessment of social vulnerability, using a composite index tailored for the case-study area. Results show that built-up areas in Kathmandu Valley will increase to 352 km2 by 2050, effectively doubling the equivalent 2018 figure. The most socially vulnerable villages will account for 29% of built-up areas in 2050, 11% more than current levels. Built-up areas in the 100-year and 1000-year return period floodplains will respectively increase from 38 km2 and 49 km2 today to 83 km2 and 108 km2 in 2050. Additionally, built-up areas in liquefaction-susceptible zones will expand by 13 km2 to 47 km2. This study illustrates how, where, and to which extent risks from natural hazards can evolve in socially vulnerable regions. Ultimately, it emphasizes an urgent need to implement effective policy measures for reducing tomorrow’s natural-hazard risks.

Using satellite data, researchers from the Tomorrow’s Cities Hub, analysed Quito’s recent historical urban expansion and multi-hazard risks to identify green spaces that can be used to reduce disaster risk and enhance post-disaster response.

This research is a part of the UKRI GCRF funded project Tomorrow’s Cities, which has the objective to encourage pro-poor risk-sensitive planning in Istanbul, Kathmandu, Nairobi and Quito. It contributes to the first of its four Work Packages (WPs). WP1, namely Understandings of Risk, broadly analyses how understandings of risks and of the root causes of risks (URRCRs) have emerged and are sustained in the city. WP1 has been further divided into four themes – Risk and Narratives (theme 1), Governance and Institutions (theme 2), Urban Change (theme 3), and Vulnerability and Capacity (theme 4). This study, belongs to theme 2 of WP1 and takes a community-level case, analyses the “gaps” between how risks are being produced at the community level and how they are managed by municipal and local governments and exposes the lines of disconnection between policy and practice.

The history of the neighbourhood is a methodology for promoting self-reflection about how humans modified the environment and at the same time bringing back memories of risk for discussing its role in people’s everyday life. This methodology was also designed to analyse conditions of vulnerability that locally contributed to risk accumulation and the capacities to contrast such risk in the context of urban growth. Through the application of in-depth semi-structured interviews to the first inhabitants of the neighbourhood (mainly elderly people), life stories were gathered for understanding people’s relation with the territory and the reasons for settling in certain places to anticipate structural causes that trigger risk accumulation.

The activities for rebuilding the history of the neighbourhood include a face-to-face approach facilitated by community leaders. Some of the steps for applying the methodology were to explain the project, the scope of people’s participation, scheduling a date for the interview, and delivering a formal invitation. The methodology includes taking a polaroid photo at the end of the interview in a place chosen by him, and depending on his preferences, inviting their relatives to be on the photo. One copy is left to the people. Also, as part of the researcher’s commitment, giving back the information gathered is important. Therefore, an easy-to-read printed comic was delivered to the neighbours (download file to see the result in Spanish). This methodology worked as a strategy to approach local communities and create trust relationships

Spanish:

Metodología para la reconstrucción de la historia del barrio

La historia del barrio es una metodología para promover la autoreflexión sobre cómo el ser humano modifica el medio ambiente y ello genera consecuencias, y al mismo tiempo recuperar la memoria del riesgo para discutir su papel en la vida cotidiana de las personas. Esta metodología fue diseñada para analizar las condiciones de vulnerabilidad y las capacidades locales para contrastar dicho riesgo en el contexto del crecimiento urbano. Mediante la aplicación de entrevistas en profundidad semiestructuradas a los primeros habitantes del barrio (principalmente adultos mayores), se recopilaron relatos de vida para comprender la relación de las personas con el territorio y las razones para instalarse en determinados lugares para anticipar las causas estructurales que desencadenan la acumulación de riesgo.

Las actividades de reconstrucción de la historia del barrio incluyen un abordaje presencial facilitado por los líderes comunitarios. Algunos de los pasos para aplicar la metodología fueron explicar el proyecto, los alcances de participación de las personas, programar una fecha para la entrevista y entregar una invitación formal. La metodología incluye tomar una foto polaroid al final de la entrevista en un lugar elegido por el entrevistado, y si él lo prefiere, invitar a sus familiares a salir en la foto. Se toman dos fotos, y una copia se deja a la gente. También, como parte del compromiso del investigador, es importante devolver la información recopilada. Por ello, se entregó a los vecinos un cómic impreso de fácil lectura (descargar archivo para ver el resultado en español). Esta metodología funcionó como una estrategia para acercarse a las comunidades locales y generar relaciones de confianza.

El Centro Ciudades del Mañana (Tomorrow’s Cities), conformado por la Escuela Politécnica Nacional, la Universidad San Francisco de Quito, la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales Flacso-Ecuador, y de varias universidades y centros de investigación del Reino Unido, tiene como objetivo proporcionar apoyo científico para reducir el riesgo de desastres por amenazas naturales de las comunidades con vulnerabilidades económicas y sociales. Para ello, se plantea el fortalecimiento de capacidades a través de la ciencia, la historia y el arte, buscando impulsar un accionar participativo de los distintos actores relacionados a la gestión territorial, contribuyendo así a un adecuado desarrollo sostenible.

En Ecuador, después del terremoto de abril de 2016, que causó más de 700 pérdidas humanas y provocó la destrucción de grandes áreas urbanas e infraestructura de interés nacional, se ha prestado una especial atención a la capacidad de adaptarse a las condiciones cambiantes (resiliencia) en las ciudades. Las ciudades resilientes están mejor posicionadas para proteger y mejorar la vida de las personas, asegurar capacidades de desarrollo, fomentar un entorno seguro de inversión e impulsar un cambio positivo entre sus habitantes.

Con el propósito que Quito sea más resiliente, es necesario planificar y responder de forma adecuada a múltiples amenazas. Convertir a Quito en una ciudad resiliente es un reto importante para los tomadores de decisión y la sociedad en general. Por ello, el Centro Ciudades del Mañana, en función de su objetivo principal ha desarrollado simultáneamente en Katmandú, Nairobi y Estambul, un Ambiente para la Toma de Decisiones (DSE)[1], que en el caso de Quito se implementa mediante la construcción, conformación y operación de un “Laboratorio urbano para la reducción del riesgo de desastres”.

[1] Para más información acerca del Ambiente para la toma de decisiones (DSE) revisar: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420921001242?via%3Dihub

Numerous approaches to earthquake risk modelling and quantification have already been proposed in the literature and/or are well established in practice. However, most of these procedures are designed to focus on risk in the context of current static exposure and vulnerability, and are therefore limited in their ability to support decisions related to the future, as yet partially unbuilt, urban landscape. We propose an end-to-end risk modelling framework that explicitly addresses this specific challenge.

The General Secretariat of Planning, in coordination with the Metropolitan Institute of Urban Planning, the City Institute and the Secretariat of Territory, Habitat and Housing, is preparing the Metropolitan Development and Territorial Planning Plan (PMDOT) 2020-2030.

The PMDOT is conceived as the instrument that contains the main guidelines of the city, in order to organize, make compatible and harmonize strategic development decisions regarding human settlements, economic-productive activities and the management of natural resources based on territorial qualities. This plan is built or updated with each new municipal government, that is, every 4 years.

The first two phases of the plan’s construction, the diagnosis and the proposal, have been completed. The management model is currently being developed, which includes the mainstreaming of a human rights approach to its guiding policies, for which, priority attention and vulnerability groups in the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ) are taken into account [1] .

To mainstream the rights-based approach, the General Planning Secretariat has requested technical support from the Tomorrow’s Cities Center ( https://tomorrowscities.org/ ), which aims to provide scientific support to reduce the risk of disasters due to natural threats to communities with economic and social vulnerabilities by strengthening capacities through science, history and art, seeking to promote participatory action by the different actors related to territorial management, and thus contribute to adequate sustainable development.

Based on this, several meetings were held between the Center’s teams and the General Planning Secretariat since August, in which various working documents, presentations, indicators, and other inputs from the PMDOT, the diagnoses of the current situation in the city and mainly the situation of priority attention and vulnerability groups were reviewed. On this basis, a work methodology was developed between September and November 2020, which was shared with the Council for the Protection of Rights and its related institutions. The plan, its axes, programs, operational strategies, and other components were shared with the representatives of the priority attention groups one week before the workshops. The workshops were held on December 16 and 17, 2020.

[1] For more details on priority attention and vulnerability groups, see: https://proteccionderechosquito.gob.ec/grupos/

The Cities of Tomorrow Applied Research Centre “Tomorrow’s Cities – Urban Risk in Transition” is promoted by the Government of the United Kingdom in four cities around the world: Istanbul (Turkey), Kathmandu (Nepal), Nairobi (Kenya) and Quito (Ecuador) (see https://tomorrowscities.org/ ). In the case of Quito, this project is executed by three universities: Universidad San Francisco de Quito, the National Polytechnic School and the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences, Flacso.

The Tomorrow’s Cities Center aims to provide scientific support to reduce the risk of disasters caused by natural threats to communities with economic and social vulnerabilities. It aims to strengthen capacities through science, history and art, seeking to promote participatory action by the different actors involved in territorial management, and thus contribute to adequate sustainable development. Within the work we do, we have an “Urban Laboratory for Disaster Risk Reduction.” The objective of this space is to generate multi-actor dialogue processes as a tool to promote a supportive environment for decision-making.

Within the framework of the laboratory, prior individual and group meetings have been held with different territorial actors that make up the laboratory as core members. The purpose of these meetings was to co-produce the laboratory space in its contents, activities and participants. Therefore, the implementation of a series of workshops has been proposed until March 2022, with the following themes: 1) Risk management in the context of the new PUGS; 2) Citizen science; 3) Education to reduce the risk of disasters; and 4) Citizen participation as a key element in the mitigation and reduction of disaster risk. The first workshop took place on November 25 in person at the facilities of Flacso, Ecuador, and was developed as follows.

In the context that we live in, risks abound and are systemic in nature. Proliferating risks are emerging in ways never anticipated before. We now live in a world where one hazard cascades to multi-hazards and a never-ending chain starts. Perhaps it is time that institutions, policymakers, and financiers did focus more on preventing the risks and losses that arise from risks than preparing and responding to risks as and when they occur. Nairobi Risk hub

With COVID-19, the systemic nature of risks has been exposed, and the potential cascading impacts laid bare. It is also correct to note that; gender equality gains might have been eroded. Consequently, the vulnerability has intensified, where the poor, the marginalized, the aged, the disabled, men, women, boys, girls, communities, and countries bear the brunt. The Sendai Framework monitor records unpleasant statistics regarding disasters and vulnerability. It shows that the least developed countries approximately record 40% of deaths and 48% of livelihoods disrupted whenever disasters occur. The framework recognizes the need for reducing risks and building resilience and livelihoods.

Notably, the framework acknowledges all the critical role that gender plays in disaster risk reductions. Women, for instance, are considered vital stakeholders in DRR efforts, especially at grassroots levels. However, their roles in DRR decision-making are limited. This policy brief highlights the impact of COVID-19 and the responsive measures towards the suffering, in the spirit of not leaving anyone behind, and social inclusion.

The Hub has a Strategic Global Planning Framework aligned to our mission. The Global Plan is outlined in the attached document.

The Hub has 3 key research and impact phases:

Phase 1 – Research Inception Projects

Phase 2 – Strategic Research

Phase 3 – Impact Accelerator

Currently the hub is transitioning between Phase 1 and Phase 2. This report specifies how this transition has been developed.

We monitor our progress by using our monitoring tool: Management Information System.

This technical report summarizes the key emerging highlights from the “Cities of the Future: Pathways to a Resilient African City Beyond COVID-19” seminar under the Cities and Resilience theme that was held on 3rd September 2020. This was one of the preparatory seminars aimed at stimulating discussions and debate to inform the ARIN International Conference titled ‘Africa in the Post-COVID-19 World: Lessons for Research and Policy’ that was held on 18th – 20th November 2020. The preparatory seminars were organized around the three conference themes: Climate Action and Sustainable Energy; Cities and Resilience; Science Technology and Innovation. These are critical areas for Africa’s transition to sustainable developed economies in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

COVID-19 Implications on Africa’s Research and Policy. Insights from ARIN International Conference 2020

That the twenty-first century would be marked by complex challenges has been a long-accepted fact. The catastrophic impacts brought by the COVID-19 global pandemic have however crystallized the nature of such challenges. As the pandemic continues to claim millions of lives, devastate economies and rapture socio-economic safety nets, governments and other actors the world over has sought swift and effective remedial responses. But as is becoming apparent, the longer-term impacts of COVID-19 might be severe and far- reaching. Hence the need to explore the immediate, short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic.

From 18th to 20th November 2020, The Africa Research and Impact Network convened the inaugural ARIN Annual Conference to spur an international dialogue on lessons for post-COVID-19 research and policy. The conference focused on three thematic areas: Climate Change & COVID-19, Cities & COVID-19, and Science Technology and Policy & COVID-19, all of which are central to the ways in which the society has interacted with the pandemic.

The conference built on a series of ARIN COVID-19 in Africa dialogues convened between the months of April and November 2020 that brought together key stakeholders from the academia, policy, and practice to generate insights and lessons for strengthening Africa’s research and policy inresponding to the pandemic and post-COVID-19 recovery plans.

This technical report presents insights shared during the conference from over 100 scholars, policy makers, and innovators drawing on their experiences from different African contexts and beyond. The deliberations comprised eminent keynote speeches, thematic panel sessions, book chapter presentations, and side-events.

Una práctica común en los sectores urbano – marginales y rurales de nuestro país y específicamente de la ciudad de Quito en cuanto a la provisión de servicios básicos, consiste en implementar medidas sustitutivas que les permitan adecuar sus viviendas con las condiciones mínimas de habitabilidad. En el caso de los sistemas sanitarios de evacuación de excretas humanas y aguas servidas, la medida primaria es la implementación de pozos sépticos que recolectan estos desechos en los lugares donde no existen posibilidades de conexión a los sistemas municipales de alcantarillado, básicamente por la ausencia de los mismos. Según la EPMAPS la cobertura promedio del servicio de alcantarillado actualmente alcanza el 92.27%, por lo que los sistemas de pozos sépticos creados inicialmente en muchos barrios de Quito para satisfacer las necesidades relacionadas con la ausencia de alcantarillado se van reemplazando y los mismos deben ser clausurados de una manera técnica con el fin de garantizar la mínima afectación posible para los habitantes del lugar, las construcciones adyacentes y las condiciones de riesgo en general. En este contexto el proyecto Tomorrow`s cities ha preparado la GUÍA PASO A PASO PARA CIERRE TÉCNICO DE UN POZO SÉPTICO con el fin de proveer información tanto a la comunidad como a las instituciones sobre la clausura adecuada de los sistemas de saneamiento tradicional como son los pozos sépticos En esta guía se incluye también una caracterización de la problemática identificada en torno a los pozos sépticos en el barrio San Luis de Miravalle, ubicado al suroriente de la ciudad, parroquia La Ferroviaria, en el cual en un inicio se utilizaban este tipo de alternativas y actualmente están siendo incorporados al sistema municipal de alcantarillado, por lo que allí se realizó el ejercicio práctico de cierre técnico de un pozo séptico piloto. Finalmente, a partir de la socialización de esta guía y su contenido audiovisual, buscamos fortalecer las capacidades locales e institucionales de manera que esta pueda ser utilizada en sectores con similar problemática para reducir el riesgo de desastres vinculado al manejo inadecuado de las aguas residuales .

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) highlights the importance of scientific research, supporting the ‘availability and application of science and technology to decision making’ in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Science and technology can play a crucial role in the world’s ability to reduce casualties, physical damage, and interruption to critical infrastructure due to natural hazards and their complex interactions. The SFDRR encourages better access to technological innovations combined with increased DRR investments in developing cost-effective approaches and tackling global challenges. To this aim, it is essential to link multi- and interdisciplinary research and technological innovations with policy and engineering/DRR practice. To share knowledge and promote discussion on recent advances, challenges, and future directions on ‘Innovations in Earthquake Risk Reduction for Resilience’, a group of experts from academia and industry met in London, UK, in July 2019. This paper summarises some of the key aspects identified and discussed during the workshop to inform other researchers worldwide and extend the conversation to a broader audience, with the ultimate aim of driving change in how seismic risk is quantified and mitigated.

English

One of the challenges of COVID times is how to do fieldwork while protecting participants and researchers. As a consequence, applying the traditional methods where the community gathers is not possible. Speaking maps or participatory maps are one of the most used methodologies to understand the territory. Since it was not possible to have large groups for applying this methodology, we created an adapted version of it, designing a family speaking map.

The objective of this method is to reflect on the dynamics of the space, build trust with the people, and at the same time to gather information about water flows and resources that might be useful for landslides modeling. Below, we present the Spanish and English version of our methodology, accompanied with some photos of its application at the neighbourhood level.

Spanish

Uno de los desafíos generados por la pandemia del COVID ha sido replantear cómo hacer trabajo de campo garantizando protección a los participantes e investigadores. Hoy en día, no es posible aplicar métodos participativos tradicionales que requieren que la comunidad se reúna en grandes grupos y comparta espacios. Los mapas parlantes o mapas participativos son una de las metodologías más utilizadas para comprender el territorio, desde la experiencia del proyecto, hemos creamos una versión adaptada de este método para ser aplicada a escala familiar, evitando el riesgo de contagio.

El objetivo de este insumo, es reflexionar sobre la dinámica del espacio, generar relaciones de confianza con la comunidad, y al mismo tiempo recopilar información sobre los flujos de agua y los recursos hídricos del barrio, que podrían ser útiles para la modelización de deslizamientos. A continuación, presentamos la versión en español e inglés de nuestra metodología, acompañada de algunas fotos de su aplicación en uno de los barrios con los que trabajamos.

Downloads of the talking maps in both English and Spanish can be accessed here.

Disasters and their associated risks have continued to evolve in complexity, forms, frequencies, and severity. The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the complexity of disaster risks while exposing the need to plan and prepare for potential risks adequately. Like many other disaster risks, COVID-19 has presented unfamiliar evolution characteristics that have made it difficult to contain. However, risk models and scenarios can be utilized to help understand the dynamics of risks as they interact with populations and the environment, providing useful recommendations for planning for disaster risks with considerable levels of certainty.

The World Economic Forum predicts that one-third of the global population will live in urban settings by 2050, with a majority of this shift expected in developing cities. Rapid urbanization will likely implicate significant transition and transformations on urban risks. The projected increased urbanization rates also point to increased exposure to urban disaster risks and enhanced vulnerabilities to the already struggling developing cities. In order to prepare and build the desired city resilience through improved disaster risk proof development, models can be used to understand the baseline scenarios and the possible future risks and their characteristics. This blog provides some useful insights for African countries on investing in risk modeling to understand future risks and inform preparedness.